Ceasefire offers fragile hope as Trump says Iran deal may be near

A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into force on Thursday, opening a narrow window for diplomacy as US President Donald Trump said a fresh meeting with Iran could take place as early as this weekend. The dual developments added to hopes that the war with Iran may be edging towards a pause, or even a broader political settlement.

Speaking outside the White House, Trump said Iran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years and suggested Washington was close to striking a deal.

He said the next round of talks with Tehran could happen soon, after negotiations in Islamabad last weekend left Iran’s nuclear ambitions as one of the main unresolved issues.

The conflict with Iran, which began on February 28 with a US-Israeli attack, has killed thousands and sent oil prices sharply higher, creating a major political and economic challenge for the White House.

Any breakthrough that helps calm the region and brings oil prices lower would hand Trump a significant foreign policy victory, especially after his administration struggled to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and curb Tehran’s nuclear programme.

In Lebanon, the ceasefire was met with celebrations in parts of Beirut, where gunfire and rockets were heard as the truce took effect at midnight.

But the calm looked shaky almost immediately. Lebanon’s state news agency reported that Israeli artillery continued shelling parts of southern Lebanon around half an hour after the ceasefire began, with machinegun fire also heard in the area.

The Israeli military, meanwhile, warned residents not to move south of the Litani River until further notice, saying its forces remained deployed because of what it described as continued Hezbollah militant activity.

Hezbollah later issued a lengthy statement outlining its operations against Israel throughout Thursday, indicating that its final attack had taken place just 10 minutes before the ceasefire started.

Trump said he believed the United States still had a real chance of reaching a deal with Iran and argued that such an agreement would have far-reaching benefits beyond the region, including lower oil prices and easing inflationary pressure.

He also said he was unsure whether a separate two-week ceasefire agreed with Iran last week would need to be extended, adding that Tehran appeared to want a deal.

The Lebanon truce is intended to halt a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that reignited after the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Hezbollah opened fire in support of Tehran on March 2, prompting a renewed Israeli offensive in Lebanon more than a year after their last major confrontation.

Trump said he had held what he described as excellent conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, and planned to invite both men to the White House for further talks.

He said Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine had been directed to work with Israel and Lebanon to push for a more lasting peace.

Iran also welcomed the ceasefire in Lebanon, with Iranian media reporting that Tehran saw it as part of an understanding reached with the United States and mediated by Pakistan.

Yet the hardest issues remain unresolved. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies, has triggered the worst oil price shock in history and prompted the International Monetary Fund to cut its global growth outlook, warning that a prolonged conflict could push the world towards recession.

At the centre of the diplomacy is Iran’s nuclear programme.

At talks last weekend, the United States proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity, softening its longstanding demand for a permanent ban.

Tehran, by contrast, suggested a halt of three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals. Washington has also insisted that any highly enriched uranium be removed from Iran, while Tehran has demanded the lifting of international sanctions.

There were signs, however, that room for compromise may be emerging.

Two Iranian sources said Tehran was considering shipping part, though not all, of its enriched uranium stockpile out of the country, a position it had previously rejected.

A diplomatic source said Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran on Wednesday and made progress on some of the most difficult sticking points, even though Iranian officials said the future of their nuclear programme had still not been settled.

A senior Iranian official said that Munir’s visit had strengthened hopes for a second round of talks and a possible extension of the ceasefire, but said deep differences remained.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, meanwhile, warned that American troops were ready to resume combat operations if no agreement was reached.

A Pakistani security source said Washington was offering sanctions relief and the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets in an effort to secure a deal.

Even so, the same source said Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz only if a permanent ceasefire was secured and the United Nations guaranteed that neither the United States nor Israel would launch future attacks.

For now, the ceasefire has created a diplomatic opening. Whether it becomes a genuine turning point, or just another brief pause in a widening regional war, remains uncertain.